TOP SECRET // FISCAL // NOFORN
DOCUMENT REF: FEH-2026-Q2COMPILED: 1430Z 26APR26NEXT REVIEW: 03MAY26DECLASSIFIED ON: NEVER
FISCAL EVENT HORIZON
The Austrian-flavoured Article IV. Six modules tracking the slow-motion solvency crisis of the fiat sovereign system, displayed as a single-page intelligence product. None of these are predictions. All of them are kindling.
SECTION 01
SOVEREIGN COUNTDOWN GLOBE
Every fiat sovereign is on a runway. Length is the only variable.
< 5Y5-15Y15-50Y50Y+
RUNWAY TO FISCAL EVENT HORIZON
05Y 353D 02H 16M 53S
UNITED STATES
CONFIDENCE: ±1.2YFAILURE MODE: DEBT STOCK
DEBT / GDP123%
INTEREST / REV16%
THE KILLER METRIC
PRIMARY BAL-5.0%
REAL GROWTH+1.8%
AVG MATURITY6.0 Y
SOVEREIGNTY SCORE59/100
WEIGHTED COMPOSITE · 0=WORST
MODE: AT CURRENT RATES
TOP 10 · DISTRESSED LEADERBOARDRANKED BY RUNWAY ↑
[ DECLASSIFIED — UPON RELEASE ]
SECTION 02
RESERVE CURRENCY DECAY INDEX
One number. One trendline. One uncomfortable story.
67.9
RESERVE CURRENCY DECAY INDEX
↗ +2.7% YoY·↗ +21.3% 5Y
CB GOLD vs USD ALLOCW 30%
72
CIPS / SWIFT VOLW 25%
58
YUAN OIL SETTLEMENTW 25%
65
BRICS BILATERAL SWAPSW 20%
75
[ DECLASSIFIED — UPON RELEASE ]
SECTION 03
CENTRAL BANK DIVERGENCE MATRIX
When the cluster breaks, capital moves. Watch the breaks before they happen.
DIVERGENCE INDEX
0.49↗ MODERATE
When this number rises, capital moves.
BOJ▲TIGHTENING
0.50%
+15BPS · 23JUL25
MKT 12M+50BPS
CBR▲TIGHTENING
19.00%
+200BPS · 13FEB26
MKT 12M+100BPS
SNB━HOLDING
0.25%
NO CHANGE · 21MAR26
MKT 12M0BPS
FED▼EASING
4.25%
-25BPS · 18MAR26
MKT 12M-75BPS
ECB▼EASING
2.25%
-25BPS · 12APR26
MKT 12M-50BPS
PBOC▼EASING
2.85%
-10BPS · 20JAN26
MKT 12M-40BPS
RBI▼EASING
5.75%
-25BPS · 04APR26
MKT 12M-50BPS
BOE▼EASING
4.00%
-25BPS · 06FEB26
MKT 12M-100BPS
BOC▼EASING
2.50%
-25BPS · 11MAR26
MKT 12M-50BPS
BCB▼EASING
11.75%
-50BPS · 09APR26
MKT 12M-200BPS
BOK▼EASING
2.50%
-25BPS · 17MAR26
MKT 12M-25BPS
BANXICO▼EASING
8.75%
-50BPS · 20MAR26
MKT 12M-150BPS
RBA▼EASING
3.85%
-25BPS · 02APR26
MKT 12M-75BPS
BI▼EASING
5.50%
-25BPS · 19MAR26
MKT 12M-75BPS
CBRT▼EASING
42.50%
-250BPS · 18APR26
MKT 12M-800BPS
SAMA▼EASING
4.75%
-25BPS · 19MAR26
MKT 12M-75BPS
NBP▼EASING
4.75%
-25BPS · 04MAR26
MKT 12M-100BPS
BCRA▼EASING
35.00%
-500BPS · 11APR26
MKT 12M-1500BPS
RIKSBK▼EASING
1.75%
-25BPS · 13MAR26
MKT 12M-50BPS
NORGES▼EASING
3.50%
-25BPS · 10APR26
MKT 12M-75BPS
BOI▼EASING
4.00%
-25BPS · 07APR26
MKT 12M-50BPS
SARB▼EASING
7.25%
-25BPS · 04APR26
MKT 12M-75BPS
CNB▼EASING
3.25%
-25BPS · 20MAR26
MKT 12M-75BPS
MNB▼EASING
5.00%
-25BPS · 22APR26
MKT 12M-100BPS
[ DECLASSIFIED — UPON RELEASE ]
SECTION 04
PETRO-DOLLAR EROSION TRACKER
The counter-narrative to 'the dollar is fine.'
DXY is a relative measure. It does not measure decay.
DXY 10Y↘ -1.4%
YUAN OIL % 10Y↗ +108.5%
GOLD REPAT 10Y↗ +128.7%
BRICS SWAPS 10Y↗ +185.4%
[ DECLASSIFIED — UPON RELEASE ]
SECTION 05
MALINVESTMENT MAPPER
A visual ledger of what cheap money built.
BUST PROBABILITY · COMPOSITE
67.8ELEVATED
This number does not predict timing. It measures kindling.
Cycle theory does not predict the day of the bust.
Cycle theory does not predict the day of the bust.
SECTOR DOSSIERS9 SECTORS · KINDLING MAP
[ DECLASSIFIED — UPON RELEASE ]
SECTION 06
WARTIME FINANCE MONITOR
The fiscal-to-financial-repression pipeline, in real time.
GLOBAL DEFENCE SPEND
2.7T USD↗ +9.4% YoY
COUNTRIES @ STAGE 3+
9↗ +3 vs LY
MEDIAN G20 STAGE
1.0↗ +0.2 vs LY
1
STAGE 1 · DEFENCE SPENDING ↑>2.5% GDP and CAGR >5% (3y)
2
STAGE 2 · WAR BOND ISSUANCEIssuance flagged for defence/security
3
STAGE 3 · CAPITAL CONTROLSOutflow restriction in last 24m
4
STAGE 4 · PRICE / WAGE DECREESDocumented cap or decree in last 24m
5
STAGE 5 · MONETARY DEBASEMENTM2 >15% (3y) AND CPI double-digit
[ SELECT A COUNTRY TAG ABOVE TO LOAD EVIDENCE DOSSIER ]
[ END OF DOCUMENT — TOP SECRET // FISCAL // NOFORN ]
TOP SECRET // FISCAL // NOFORN