METHODOLOGY

Each sovereign's runway is the minimum of two threshold crossings: (1) Years until debt/GDP exceeds 150% under the standard debt-dynamics equation: debt_t+1 / GDP_t+1 = debt_t/GDP_t × (1 + r) / (1 + g) − primary_balance/GDP where r is the effective interest rate on outstanding stock and g is nominal GDP growth (real growth + 2% assumed inflation). (2) Years until interest expense exceeds 25% of general government revenue, with interest scaling linearly with the projected debt/GDP path while the effective rate is held constant. Whichever crosses first defines the runway and the dossier surfaces the failure mode (DEBT_STOCK or INTEREST_CROWD_OUT). The 25%-of-revenue trigger is editorially load-bearing — historically it's the metric that actually kills sovereigns (UK 1976, Greece 2010, repeated Argentine episodes), not the debt stock itself.

0-100, higher = stronger. Weighted composite per the locked editorial weights: • Debt/GDP — 30% • Interest as % of revenue — 30% (the killer metric) • FX-denominated debt share — 15% • External debt share — 15% • Reserve adequacy — 10%

The "STRESSED" view applies +200bps to the effective rate and -100bps to real GDP growth. The differential between current-rates and stressed runways shows which sovereigns are solvent only at zero (Japan being the obvious example).

Reported as ±N years on the countdown clock. v1 uses a simple proxy (~20% of runway). The intended derivation is a rolling 5-year volatility of (r-g) and primary balance — wired alongside the Phase 8c DB connection.

The RCDI is a z-score normalised weighted mean of four components, each scaled 0-100 against a 2010-2020 baseline (higher = more decay): • CB Gold vs USD allocation shift — 30% • CIPS / SWIFT volume ratio — 25% • Yuan-denominated oil settlement % — 25% • BRICS+ bilateral swap notional vs Fed swap notional — 20%

Gold/USD: aggregate quarterly Δ(gold reserves / USD reserves) across all CBs, weighted by reserve size. Source: IMF COFER + WGC. CIPS/SWIFT: ratio of CIPS message volume to SWIFT volume. Where official disclosure is incomplete, estimated from PBoC monthly statements + BIS Triennial cross-referenced. Yuan oil: yuan-settled % of global oil trade — built from Aramco / CNPC / Russian disclosures and major bilateral deals. Quarterly granularity at best. BRICS swaps: aggregate notional outstanding of BRICS+ bilateral swap lines, divided by Fed swap line notional. Source: BIS bilateral swap database.

Each bank classified easing / holding / tightening based on trailing 6-month policy moves: net cuts → easing, net hikes → tightening, no net move → holding. Hand-classified at refresh time; the 6-month window is editorially adjustable.

From OIS curves where liquid; futures-implied where not (and short-rate proxy where neither). Reported in cumulative basis points over the next 12 months relative to current.

GDP-weighted standard deviation of stance scores (-1 easing, 0 holding, +1 tightening) across the 24-cell universe. Above 0.55 = HIGH (capital is moving), 0.35-0.55 = MODERATE, below 0.35 = LOW.

Each sector's headline metric (zombie ratio, vacancy rate, mark-to-model spread, perp funding, etc.) is z-score normalised against its own 20-year history. The result is rescaled 0-100, with 50 = long-run average and 100 = worst observed reading.

Equal-weight geometric mean across all 9 sector stress scores. The geometric mean is editorially deliberate — a cluster of moderate signals beats a single extreme one, which matches the Austrian-flavoured framing: cycle theory does not predict the day of the bust, it maps the kindling.

Per-sector estimate of months until a secondary stress trigger fires under the current rate path. Hand-modelled — not a formal projection, an editorial signal.

Each country gets the deepest stage it has triggered (cumulative — Stage 3 implies 1+2 also fired). Thresholds: • Stage 1: defence spending >2.5% GDP AND 3-year CAGR >5% • Stage 2: net new sovereign issuance specifically marked for defence/security • Stage 3: any documented capital outflow restriction in last 24 months • Stage 4: any documented price/wage decree or cap in last 24 months • Stage 5: M2 growth >15% sustained 3 years AND CPI double-digit The thresholds are editorial. Different cycles will demand different cuts — the framework is the point, not the specific numbers.

Every classification must be backed by at least one documented news event or formal release within the trigger window. Evidence bullets render in the country drilldown so the reader can audit the call.

All four series are indexed to Apr 2016 = 100 so they share a comparable y-axis. The editorial point is that DXY can rise simultaneously with the erosion layers: DXY measures relative strength against G7 peers, not absolute dollar dominance.

DXY: standard ICE / FRED daily. Yuan oil settlement %: estimated from Aramco / CNPC / Russian disclosures plus named bilateral deals. Gold repatriation index: aggregate cross-border gold flows back to source nations (ECB, Bundesbank, India, etc.) per WGC quarterly. BRICS bilateral swap notional: BIS bilateral swap database, summed.

The chart is overlaid with discrete inflection events drawn from a curated event list. Hovering reveals the event label; the event timeline is the page's narrative spine for the post-2022 acceleration.