US strike on Qeshm Island sustains oil at $96 while Bitcoin slips below 77,000

Lead story · bitcoin — Bitcoin drops below $77,000 as chip rout deepens ahead of U.S. midterm vote (CoinDesk)

The Lead

US strikes on Qeshm Island keep energy prices elevated while diplomacy stays open, leaving Bitcoin exposed to the same dollar strength and rate pressure that just drove it below 77,000.

Exchange outflows of several thousand BTC coincide with light on-chain demand and a chip sector rout, so the net selling pressure looks more like repositioning than fresh accumulation. Miners hold hashrate steady and fees remain negligible, yet Lightning capacity has already contracted sharply and the next difficulty retarget points lower. The market therefore sits between two untested claims: that recent whale flows represent durable buying, or that they merely clear space for further downside once midterms pass.

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The five legs behind today's conviction score of 64.
Network and Macro are 43 points apart — the composite is averaging away a real disagreement.

The flows that look like support may simply be the first leg of the next leg down.

Monday · The price of money

The 10-year real yield is 2.63%.

Holding cash beats holding nothing again: money has a positive real return, which is the environment every long-duration asset has to argue against. Bitcoin has spent 23% of its life in the opposite regime.

10Y REAL YIELD: 2.63%
DAYS NEGATIVE: 1,397
SHARE OF HISTORY: 23.5%
SINCE: 2010-07-18

Data as of 2026-10-29 · Real Yields → · Free with an account

Go deeper

The Rate Machine
Vienna School · Background to Real Yields
Setting rates is herding, not dialling
Time Preference
Vienna School · Background to Real Yields
Capital, interest, and the structure of production

The Wire

BITCOIN
Bitcoin drops below $77,000 as chip rout deepens ahead of U.S. midterm vote — CoinDesk

BITCOIN
Bitcoin risks drop below $76K as 7% oil slide fails to spark BTC price rally — Cointelegraph

CONFLICT
U.S. reportedly strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Vance hopes for ‘negotiated settlement’ with Tehran — CNBC

CONFLICT
North Korea denies links to Binance hack as researchers trace stolen billions — CNBC

ECONOMY
Australia hikes rates to 18-year high to fight inflation — CNBC

ECONOMY
Nasdaq-100 tumbles into its third correction this year as AI worries mount — MarketWatch

Sources (18)

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