Bitcoin holds near $81,000 as Fed pauses and ZEC jumps

Lead story · bitcoin — Bitcoin nears $81,000 ahead of Fed decision as ZEC jumps 8% (CoinDesk)

The Lead

Bitcoin price action near $81,000 ahead of the Fed decision sits at fair value with MVRV at 1.49 and neutral sentiment, yet exchange outflows have reversed inflows without fresh spot demand to match. Miners have restored hashrate above 1,000 EH/s despite rising difficulty and negligible fees, while Lightning capacity keeps contracting.

The contradiction sits in steady dollar and yield conditions absorbing the pause expectation, with no measurable Bitcoin bid from the Iran sanctions tightening or oil premium. The open question is whether the outflows reflect durable accumulation or simply rotation that evaporates once the decision lands and liquidity stays orderly.

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The five legs behind today's conviction score of 61.
Network and Macro are 48 points apart — the composite is averaging away a real disagreement.

Outflows without buying pressure leave the next move dependent on post-decision flows.

Monday · The price of money

The 10-year real yield is 2.66%.

Holding cash beats holding nothing again: money has a positive real return, which is the environment every long-duration asset has to argue against. Bitcoin has spent 24% of its life in the opposite regime.

10Y REAL YIELD: 2.66%
DAYS NEGATIVE: 1,397
SHARE OF HISTORY: 23.5%
SINCE: 2010-07-18

Data as of 2026-10-23 · Real Yields → · Free with an account

Go deeper

The Rate Machine
Vienna School · Background to Real Yields
Setting rates is herding, not dialling
Time Preference
Vienna School · Background to Real Yields
Capital, interest, and the structure of production

The Wire

BITCOIN
Bitcoin treasury Datavault AI plunges 50% after firm says it can’t access its BTC — CoinDesk

BITCOIN
Bitcoin nears $81,000 ahead of Fed decision as ZEC jumps 8% — CoinDesk

CONFLICT
Trump says Iran war will end 'when I want it to' as costs reportedly balloon to $47 billion — CNBC

ECONOMY
Stock futures are mixed as traders await Fed decision, Big Tech earnings: Live updates — CNBC

CONFLICT
Alastair Crooke: The Iran War & The 'Terrible Power Of The Purse' — ZeroHedge

POLITICAL
Ex-wife of Zimbabwe's vice-president freed after collapse of attempted murder case — BBC World

Sources (26)

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