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Sunday, 25 October 2026 · No. 206

France arrests nearly 1,000 amid spreading protests

Lead story · political — Almost 1,000 arrested as clashes follow another day of mass protests across France (BBC World)

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The Lead

France’s mass protests have already produced nearly 1,000 arrests, injecting fresh political risk into European funding markets at a moment when energy prices are already elevated and sovereign spreads are sensitive.

Bitcoin sits in a narrow consolidation band near eighty thousand five hundred dollars with modest exchange inflows and fair-value MVRV, offering no clear edge while macro yields stay firm and geopolitical energy premiums widen. The ignored contradiction is that officials continue to signal restraint even as commodity prices and bond markets price persistent inflation without a clear transmission mechanism to risk assets.

The open question is whether today’s French instability stays contained or spills into broader EUR liquidity stress that would force a reassessment of carry trades across the board.

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The five legs behind today's conviction score of 60.
The five legs behind today's conviction score of 60.
Network and Macro are 49 points apart — the composite is averaging away a real disagreement.

European funding stress now carries a live political trigger.

Monday · The price of money

The 10-year real yield is 2.76%.

Holding cash beats holding nothing again: money has a positive real return, which is the environment every long-duration asset has to argue against. Bitcoin has spent 24% of its life in the opposite regime.

10Y REAL YIELD
2.76%
DAYS NEGATIVE
1,397
SHARE OF HISTORY
23.5%
SINCE
2010-07-18

Data as of 2026-10-21 · Real Yields → · Free with an account

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  • The Rate Machine

    Vienna School · Background to Real Yields

    Setting rates is herding, not dialling

  • Time Preference

    Vienna School · Background to Real Yields

    Capital, interest, and the structure of production

The Wire

Sources (54)

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