Sunday, 18 October 2026 · No. 199
Trump waives Graham Act sanctions on Russia two days before they take effect
Lead story · political — Trump waives several Russia sanctions as row with Zelensky intensifies (BBC World)
The Lead
Trump waived most new sanctions and tariffs under the Lindsey O. Graham Act on Friday, clearing the path for continued Russian energy exports to major buyers. The step eases one source of upward pressure on global oil prices just as Brent holds near $110 a barrel amid persistent supply risks.[1]
Bitcoin sits near $81,600 with modest net inflows to exchanges and neutral sentiment, showing no clear reaction to the policy shift. Higher-for-longer yields and a firm dollar continue to compete for capital without fresh liquidity signals from the Fed. The open question is whether sustained sanctions relief on Moscow will lower energy costs enough to alter rate expectations or simply extend the current standoff between inflation and growth.
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The Reading
Threat
QUIET
Conviction
61/100
57 sources cited
At Publication
Now and change since Sun 18 Oct
- BTC Price
- $81,628
- 24h Change
- 0.17%
- Fear & Greed
- 53
- Hashrate
- 1018.4 EH/s
- MVRV
- 1.51
- Block Height
- 971,952
- S&P 500
- 7,659.44
- VIX
- 19.99
- Gold
- $4181
- DXY
- 101.78
- US 10Y
- 5.10%
- Oil
- $99.02
In This Briefing
The 1.3 % BTC rally and shift to Greed contradict the expectation of a contained reaction, while the oil-price decline occurred as described. The narrow sanctions waiver did not create a clear narrative link between lower energy prices and Bitcoin, yet risk appetite still improved. Key change was a modest shift in sentiment that outpaced the macro relief priced by bonds.
Lesson: Price action can diverge from macro narratives when sentiment alone drives short-term flows, so waiting for confirmed liquidity or volume confirmation is safer than assuming narrative follow-through.
Momentum and Macro are 50 points apart — the composite is averaging away a real disagreement.
Energy price relief now hinges on whether Moscow delivers the diesel volumes promised.
Monday · The price of money
The 10-year real yield is 2.78%.
Holding cash beats holding nothing again: money has a positive real return, which is the environment every long-duration asset has to argue against. Bitcoin has spent 24% of its life in the opposite regime.
- 10Y REAL YIELD
- 2.78%
- DAYS NEGATIVE
- 1,397
- SHARE OF HISTORY
- 23.5%
- SINCE
- 2010-07-18
Data as of 2026-10-15 · Real Yields → · Free with an account
Go deeper
- The Rate Machine
Vienna School · Background to Real Yields
Setting rates is herding, not dialling
- Time Preference
Vienna School · Background to Real Yields
Capital, interest, and the structure of production
The Wire
BITCOIN
Satoshi-era bitcoin faces a bigger quantum threat after Google’s new Willow breakthrough — CoinDesk
BITCOIN
Crypto Firms Launch Quantum Alliance as 6 Million Bitcoin Sit Exposed — Decrypt
CONFLICT
The Biggest Winners And Losers From The Petrodollar's Decline — ZeroHedge
ECONOMY
‘Countries are defying gravity’: how much longer can global economy resist chaos? — Guardian Biz
CONFLICT
St Petersburg under attack from Ukrainian drone swarm — Al Jazeera
ECONOMY
How I Stopped Worrying, And Learned To Love Data Centers — ZeroHedge
Sources (57)
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