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Wednesday, 30 September 2026 · No. 181

CoinDesk reports bull score at 90 while spot demand shrinks 170,000 BTC

Lead story · bitcoin — Bitcoin rally shows signs of cooling even as a 'bull score' gauge nears its perfect score (CoinDesk)

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The Lead

Bitcoin's advance from the summer lows has stalled at $83,300 as spot demand contracts by roughly 170,000 BTC over thirty days and futures demand growth collapses ninety percent in two weeks.[1][2] Exchange inflows have turned modestly positive again, reversing earlier outflows and aligning with profit-taking from buyers now sitting on thirty-three percent average unrealized gains.[1]

Network hashrate holds steady near 950 EH/s with no miner capitulation or acceleration, while fresh Treasury sanctions on Iran's weapons procurement networks tighten dollar access for third-country intermediaries without any observable capital flight into Bitcoin.[3][4] Higher real yields and a firm dollar continue to raise opportunity costs across risk assets. The open question is whether the bull-score metric near ninety reflects exhausted momentum or simply a pause before the next leg, and nothing in the last twenty-four hours resolves it.

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How this call played outTOO EARLY

The past outlook correctly identified a short-term stall, yet the market reversed that stall with a 1.1 % gain the next day as exchange outflows resumed and yields stayed elevated—showing the pause resolved quickly rather than extending into deeper cooling. The 90 bull-score reading therefore proved to be a temporary lull, not an exhaustion signal. Key macro variables (yields, dollar strength) remained unchanged, so the narrative's core tension was still relevant but not decisive within the 24-hour window.

Lesson: High bull-score readings near resistance can signal exhaustion only after price action confirms the stall; otherwise treat them as a neutral pause until the next data release or flow shift resolves the direction.

The Fear & Greed index over 90 days: 73, greed.
The Fear & Greed index over 90 days: 73, greed.
Sentiment is the one input on this page that measures the other participants rather than the asset.

Weakening buyer flows now set the path more than any on-chain optimism.

Monday · The price of money

The 10-year real yield is 2.85%.

Holding cash beats holding nothing again: money has a positive real return, which is the environment every long-duration asset has to argue against. Bitcoin has spent 24% of its life in the opposite regime.

10Y REAL YIELD
2.85%
DAYS NEGATIVE
1,397
SHARE OF HISTORY
23.6%
SINCE
2010-07-18

Data as of 2026-09-24 · Real Yields → · Free with an account

Instruments for this story

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  • The Rate Machine

    Vienna School · Background to Real Yields

    Setting rates is herding, not dialling

  • Time Preference

    Vienna School · Background to Real Yields

    Capital, interest, and the structure of production

The Wire

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