Wednesday, 23 September 2026 · No. 174
Bitcoin streak since 2012 collides with positive exchange inflows
Lead story · bitcoin — Bitcoin's on a streak it hasn't hit since 2012 (CoinDesk)
The Lead
Bitcoin cleared a dense short wall on September 22 and extended its longest winning streak since 2012, yet exchange net flows have already flipped positive in multiple trackers and MVRV sits only modestly above its long-term average.
Hormuz de-escalation talks eased Brent below $89 and cut energy inflation risk, but miners have kept hashrate far below 2025 peaks despite the price level, leaving network security thinner than price history implies. The open question is whether sustained inflows above 10,000 BTC will cap the move before the next difficulty retarget.
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The Reading
Threat
QUIET
Conviction
54/100
23 sources cited
At Publication
Now and change since Wed 23 Sep
- BTC Price
- $86,504
- 24h Change
- 1.17%
- Fear & Greed
- 71
- Hashrate
- 921.2 EH/s
- MVRV
- 1.61
- Block Height
- 968,229
- S&P 500
- 7,764.64
- VIX
- 14.21
- Gold
- $4382
- DXY
- 100.42
- US 10Y
- 4.97%
- Oil
- $88.99
In This Briefing
The outlook correctly flagged positive inflows and thin hashrate as risks, yet the 2.8% drop was driven more by leverage liquidation than by the inflows highlighted. Key developments were $400M+ long liquidations and continued exchange outflows rather than the anticipated inflow-driven reversal. The narrative's macro concerns (Fed yields, sanctions) did not produce the expected near-term impact.
Lesson: Leverage liquidations can override on-chain flow signals in the very short term; treat them as separate risk factors.
Sentiment is at the edge of its own three-month range — the readings that historically precede a turn, not a continuation.
Distribution pressure can still override momentum even when sentiment reads extreme greed.
Monday · The price of money
The 10-year real yield is 2.61%.
Holding cash beats holding nothing again: money has a positive real return, which is the environment every long-duration asset has to argue against. Bitcoin has spent 24% of its life in the opposite regime.
- 10Y REAL YIELD
- 2.61%
- DAYS NEGATIVE
- 1,397
- SHARE OF HISTORY
- 23.7%
- SINCE
- 2010-07-18
Data as of 2026-09-17 · Real Yields → · Free with an account
Instruments for this story
- Sentiment Tracker
Chart of the day
Bitcoin news sentiment — pro vs skeptic framing over time
Go deeper
- The Rate Machine
Vienna School · Background to Real Yields
Setting rates is herding, not dialling
- Time Preference
Vienna School · Background to Real Yields
Capital, interest, and the structure of production
The Wire
BITCOIN
Bitcoin's on a streak it hasn't hit since 2012 — CoinDesk
BITCOIN
$161 Million in Decade-Old Bitcoin Has Moved in Just Two Weeks — Decrypt
ECONOMY
CME Expands Crypto Futures Lineup With Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap — Decrypt
CONFLICT
Iran floats conditions for Hormuz reopening as Trump says deal could come after midterms — CNBC
CONFLICT
US, Iran hold mediated UNGA talks on ending war, opening Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
ECONOMY
Wall Street’s Nasdaq hits all-time high as AI frenzy gathers pace — Al Jazeera
Sources (23)
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