Bitcoin reclaims 50-week moving average amid whale inflows and oil above $100

Bitcoin faces fresh distribution as whale deposits drive net exchange inflows of nearly 2,800 BTC, overwhelming the earlier modest outflows and coinciding with $57 million in long liquidations. MVRV at 1.52 shows fair value, yet the Fear & Greed score of 70 sits atop this supply pressure without evident buyer follow-through. The geopolitical energy shock from US-Iran strikes keeps oil above $100 and yields elevated, tightening dollar liquidity in a way that historically compresses risk assets rather than supporting them. The 50-week moving average reclaim registers as a technical milestone, but it arrives against a backdrop where miners and Lightning capacity show no acceleration and the next difficulty adjustment leans lower. The open question is whether the current macro tightening cycle will resolve into sustained higher rates or force an abrupt policy pivot that re-prices Bitcoin's cost of capital.