Trump threatens Iranian oil seizure as Hormuz talks stall

Bitcoin price sits near 77500 with thin volume and no decisive direction while exchange flows remain mixed. The decisive development is Trump's explicit threat to seize Iranian oil flows after Hormuz talks stalled, tightening the risk premium on Brent already above 100 dollars. That move collides with Fed futures pricing an 85 percent chance of a rate hike at this week's meeting and Warsh's hawkish stance on persistent inflation. Consensus treats the two as separate files when the linkage runs through dollar strength and real yields that continue to drain liquidity. The open question is whether a credible pause in Ukraine fighting can offset the fresh energy and sanctions pressure or whether the dollar simply absorbs both shocks.