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← ArchiveDaily BriefingGenerated 06:00 UTC

Thursday, 3 September 2026 · No. 154

Fed hike odds at 62-70 percent as Bitcoin ETF outflows hit 236 million dollars

Lead story · bitcoin — Bitcoin back above $77,500, XRP leads majors as Fed hike odds slide to 62% (CoinDesk)

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The Lead

Bitcoin trades above 77,500 dollars while futures price a September Fed hike at 62 to 70 percent.[1][2] Spot ETF redemptions reached 236 million dollars on September 1, led by BlackRock's IBIT, even as exchange inflows hit several thousand BTC in recent sessions.[3][4]

Miners continue reallocating power to AI at scale, leaving hashrate 20 percent below its 2025 peak after 316 days without a record.[5] Oil above 90 dollars from renewed Iran strikes adds imported inflation without lifting Bitcoin demand. The unresolved tension sits in whether higher rates and ETF exits will force distribution or whether macro volatility simply keeps price range-bound.

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How this call played outMISSED

The outlook expected macro headwinds and ETF redemptions to keep price contained, yet BTC rose 4.1% in one day as fear & greed jumped from 65 to 74. The narrative correctly flagged inflation and policy tension, but underestimated immediate risk-on resilience. The Dutch gold move, occurring after the past briefing, highlighted sovereign de-dollarization pressures not yet reflected in the prior snapshot.

Lesson: When policy-tightening signals coincide with rising official-sector hedging, near-term price action can still favor risk assets until actual outflows overwhelm flows.

The Fear & Greed index over 90 days: 63, greed.
The Fear & Greed index over 90 days: 63, greed.
Sentiment is the one input on this page that measures the other participants rather than the asset.

Higher rates and ETF redemptions now test whether current levels hold or crack.

Thursday · The wall

$8.4tn of sovereign debt matures in 2026.

That is 20% of $42.3tn outstanding across the US, UK and Japan — all of it to be refinanced at whatever the market charges on the day, not at the coupon it was issued with.

MATURING 2026
$8.4tn
MATURING 2027
$5.3tn
TOTAL OUTSTANDING
$42.3tn
SHARE THIS YEAR
20%

Data as of 2026-09-01 · Maturity Wall → · Free with an account

Instruments for this story

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  • The Plumbing

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    Where the real fragility lives

  • The MMT Autopsy

    Vienna School · Background to Fiscal Event Horizon

    Modern Monetary Theory, steelmanned then dissected

The Wire

BITCOIN
Hyperscale Data ends Michigan BTC mining as holdings fall 79% — Cointelegraph

BITCOIN
Bitcoin back above $77,500, XRP leads majors as Fed hike odds slide to 62% — CoinDesk

CONFLICT
Iran strikes Kuwait as Trump says renewed Mideast hostilities will not last 'too long' — CNBC

ECONOMY
The world appears to be entering a higher-rate era. Here’s who will pay the price — CNBC

CONFLICT
Asia looks to store oil, gas closer to home after Strait of Hormuz crisis — Al Jazeera

POLITICAL
CNBC Daily Open: U.S.-China meeting in focus while Trump wants to rename the Strait of Hormuz — CNBC

Sources (25)

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