Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · No. 152
Warsh speech lifts September hike odds to 60 percent
Lead story · bitcoin — Bitcoin steady above $78,000, HYPE leads as majors slip on hawkish Fed bets (CoinDesk)
The Lead
Bitcoin holds near 79,000 dollars as hawkish Fed rhetoric lifts September rate-hike odds to around 60 percent. Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks that underlying inflation has not improved enough tightened yields and the dollar while softening gold.[1]
Exchange reserves at Binance reached 2026 highs and ETF inflows cooled sharply last week, pointing to distribution pressure into the modest rebound rather than renewed accumulation. MVRV at 1.48 leaves limited room before short-term holders turn profitable and test supply. The unresolved tension is whether sustained exchange inflows confirm selling or whether any fresh outflows can still tighten available coins fast enough to matter.
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The Reading
Threat
QUIET
Conviction
53/100
19 sources cited
At Publication
Now and change since Tue 1 Sep
- BTC Price
- $79,154
- 24h Change
- 1.50%
- Fear & Greed
- 69
- Hashrate
- 922.1 EH/s
- MVRV
- 1.48
- Block Height
- 964,994
- S&P 500
- 7,686.14
- VIX
- 14.92
- Gold
- $4479
- DXY
- 99.49
- US 10Y
- 4.76%
- Oil
- $86.74
In This Briefing
The past outlook correctly flagged distribution pressure and a firm dollar/yield backdrop; BTC indeed slipped 1.9% to $77.6k while Fear & Greed eased. However, the narrative overstated the immediacy of the threat—price remained within a narrow band and no sharp liquidation materialized. Key developments were continued reserve inflows and long-term-holder selling, confirming the supply overhang without triggering a deeper break.
Lesson: Exchange-reserve highs and LTH distribution are useful warnings, but they require confirmation from macro catalysts before they translate into sustained price declines.
Sentiment is the one input on this page that measures the other participants rather than the asset.
Higher rates now compete directly with any supply-tightening narrative.
Tuesday · Who is holding
Strategy holds 840,447 BTC at an average of $75,640.
That single balance sheet holds more than the 10 largest listed miners put together (95,980 BTC) — concentration that is a bid on the way up and an overhang on the way down.
- STRATEGY HOLDS
- 840,447 BTC
- AVERAGE COST
- $75,640
- TOTAL SPENT
- $63.6bn
- 10 LISTED MINERS
- 95,980 BTC
Data as of 2026-08-10 · MSTR Deep Dive →
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The Wire
BITCOIN
Strive Adds $143 Million in Bitcoin as Treasury Firms Pile Back In — Decrypt
BITCOIN
Strategy Opposes MSCI Proposal, Says Bitcoin Treasury Firms Are Being Targeted a Second Time — BTC Magazine
CONFLICT
Tanker struck in Hormuz, raising worries over escalation, as Trump vows to hit Iran 'hard' — CNBC
CONFLICT
This maneuver is boosting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — MarketWatch
ECONOMY
With Warsh running the Fed, should bond investors be worried? — MarketWatch
ECONOMY
AI could cause global economic downturn, Andrew Bailey warns G20 — BBC Business
Sources (19)
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