Saturday, 29 August 2026 · No. 149
Six 2011-2014 wallets moved 553 BTC to non-exchange addresses
Lead story · bitcoin — Bitcoin wallets untouched for 10 years moved $40 million. Most avoided exchanges (CoinDesk)
The Lead
Six decade-old wallets moved 553 BTC worth roughly $40 million in ten days, most to unlabeled addresses rather than exchanges. The transfers mark the latest in a slowing stream of long-dormant supply entering circulation, yet they arrive against exchange net inflows and a price that has already given back recent gains to sit near $77,600.
Holders still treat the coins as long-term positions even as macro conditions tighten, with the new Fed chair signaling further work may be needed on inflation. The open question is whether these early coins represent isolated estate or legal housekeeping or the start of broader distribution that the current fair-value MVRV cannot absorb without fresh demand.
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The Reading
Threat
QUIET
Conviction
53/100
44 sources cited
At Publication
Now and change since Sat 29 Aug
- BTC Price
- $77,613
- 24h Change
- -2.59%
- Fear & Greed
- 68
- Hashrate
- 893.3 EH/s
- MVRV
- 1.47
- Block Height
- 964,535
- S&P 500
- 7,711.76
- VIX
- 14.43
- Gold
- $4530
- DXY
- 99.68
- US 10Y
- 4.72%
- Oil
- $83.40
In This Briefing
The past outlook warned of potential selling pressure from old coins, yet BTC rose 0.7% to $78,119 with Fear & Greed edging higher to 69 (Greed), suggesting the distribution did not immediately weigh on price. The current briefing pivots to macro drivers (Iran sanctions and oil shocks) that may have overridden any coin-specific pressure. Overall the distribution thesis proved too-early, as no adverse price reaction materialized in the measured 1-day window.
Lesson: Large dormant-coin transfers are not reliable short-term price signals when macro liquidity or risk appetite can override supply concerns.
Sentiment is at the edge of its own three-month range — the readings that historically precede a turn, not a continuation.
Legal claims and hardware concerns may explain more than profit-taking.
Saturday · The long view
Price sits −41% against its power-law median.
On a sixteen-year regression that explains 96.2% of the variance, today is 19% of the way up the channel. It is a long-horizon frame, not a trade — but it is the frame that has survived every cycle so far.
- PRICE
- $80,387
- MODEL MEDIAN
- $136,982
- CHANNEL FLOOR
- $36,606
- CHANNEL POSITION
- 19%
Data as of 2026-08-27 · Power Law → · Free with an account
Instruments for this story
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Bitcoin retirement projection with power-law bands
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Go deeper
- The Bitcoin Power Law
Ledger School · Background to Power Law
The log-log growth corridor and its critics
The Wire
BITCOIN
Bitcoin wallets untouched for 10 years moved $40 million. Most avoided exchanges — CoinDesk
BITCOIN
Bitcoin Cools Off After $3 Billion ETF-Driven Surge — BTC Magazine
ECONOMY
Kevin Warsh gets what every Fed chair hopes for: a bond market that trusts his word — MarketWatch
CONFLICT
The Iran War Has Turned VLCCs Into $650,000-A-Day Assets — ZeroHedge
ECONOMY
‘Winter panic’: EU gas stores at their lowest level in 13 years — Guardian Biz
CONFLICT
The War Hawks' Predictions Have Aged Like Milk — ZeroHedge
Sources (44)
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