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Saturday, 22 August 2026 · No. 142

Treasury doubles long-bond buybacks as Bitcoin climbs past $78,000

Lead story · bitcoin — How a Treasury buyback tweak helped bitcoin surge 25% to nearly $80,000 in days (CoinDesk)

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The Lead

The Treasury’s decision to double long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation drove long yields lower and triggered roughly $4 billion in short liquidations that lifted Bitcoin from the mid-$60,000s to near $80,000 in days.[1] That move eased pressure on risk assets without constituting quantitative easing, yet it leaves the rally exposed once the squeeze exhausts. Miner hashrate has meanwhile slid to multi-month lows as public operators lock power into multi-year AI contracts worth tens of billions, a structural drain that price gains alone have not reversed.[2] The US-Canada tariff standoff, now live with matching retaliatory duties on $20 billion of goods, adds policy friction that has so far stayed contained to trade flows.[3] Will sustained spot demand or renewed distribution flows set the range once the liquidation wave fades?

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How this call played outACCURATE

The outlook correctly flagged the rally as exposed once the liquidation wave faded, and the realized 1.6% decline in the following day confirmed this fragility. Oil sanctions and rising Brent prices introduced new macro pressure that reinforced the Fed’s inflation concerns, overriding the prior liquidity tailwind. The combination of exhausted short covering and fresh geopolitical risk explains the quick reversal.

Lesson: Bitcoin signals are most reliable when liquidity-driven moves are already maturing; new macro shocks can quickly re-price risk once the initial squeeze is spent.

The Fear & Greed index over 90 days: 72, greed.
The Fear & Greed index over 90 days: 72, greed.
Sentiment is at the edge of its own three-month range — the readings that historically precede a turn, not a continuation.

The next netflow reading will show whether buyers arrived or shorts simply covered.

Saturday · The long view

Price sits −45% against its power-law median.

On a sixteen-year regression that explains 96.2% of the variance, today is 18% of the way up the channel. It is a long-horizon frame, not a trade — but it is the frame that has survived every cycle so far.

PRICE
$75,415
MODEL MEDIAN
$136,455
CHANNEL FLOOR
$36,506
CHANNEL POSITION
18%

Data as of 2026-08-21 · Power Law → · Free with an account

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