Exchange inflows mount as Hormuz tensions lift oil past $105.

Exchange inflows signal distribution as holders offload roughly 2,000 BTC daily into venues, capping upside at $81,000 despite ETF net holdings surpassing 756,000 BTC.^[1][2][3] Sellers ignore ETF absorption capacity, betting stagnant price absorbs supply; history shows exchange balances above 2.6 million BTC trigger breakdowns. Network holds firm with hashrate near 1,000 EH/s and Lightning at 5,300 BTC, projecting 4.35% difficulty rise May 15, yet hashprice clings below $39 per PH/s/day, testing miner resolve.^[4][5][6] Oil at $105 per barrel from Hormuz deadlock fuels global tightening, spiking VIX to 18 amid Powell's steady rates; Bitcoin sits out as dollar liquidity strains dollar-funded trades, not crypto flows.^[7] MVRV at 1.51 leaves holders modestly profitable but uncommitted; neutral Fear at 49 hides leverage fragility.^[8][9] Will Hormuz reopen before exchange supply swamps ETF demand?^[7]