Exchange inflows mount as Hormuz tensions lift oil past $105.

The Lead

Exchange inflows signal distribution as holders offload roughly 2,000 BTC daily into venues, capping upside at $81,000 despite ETF net holdings surpassing 756,000 BTC.^[1]^[2]^[3] Sellers ignore ETF absorption capacity, betting stagnant price absorbs supply; history shows exchange balances above 2.6 million BTC trigger breakdowns. Network holds firm with hashrate near 1,000 EH/s and Lightning at 5,300 BTC, projecting 4.35% difficulty rise May 15, yet hashprice clings below $39 per PH/s/day, testing miner resolve.^[4]^[5]^[6] Oil at $105 per barrel from Hormuz deadlock fuels global tightening, spiking VIX to 18 amid Powell's steady rates; Bitcoin sits out as dollar liquidity strains dollar-funded trades, not crypto flows.^[7] MVRV at 1.51 leaves holders modestly profitable but uncommitted; neutral Fear at 49 hides leverage fragility.^[8]^[9] Will Hormuz reopen before exchange supply swamps ETF demand?^[7]

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The Wire

BITCOIN
Bitcoin ‘golden cross’ appears for the first time since 2023: Will BTC price rally? — Cointelegraph

BITCOIN
Bitcoin’s floor looks firmer at $80,000, but traders still don’t trust the breakout — CoinDesk

POLITICAL
Clarity Act, in the flesh, unveiled by U.S. Senate Banking Committee before hearing — CoinDesk

CONFLICT
European stocks to open lower as hopes for U.S.-Iran peace deal fade — CNBC

CONFLICT
Netanyahu Insists Iran War To Continue Until Uranium Is 'Physically' Removed — ZeroHedge

ECONOMY
UK households cut back spending at fastest rate in 18 months, Barclays says — Guardian Biz

Sources (33)

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