Bitcoin rangebound as Hormuz impasse lifts oil, stalls risk momentum.

The Lead

Bitcoin price lingers above $81,000 with exchange outflows nearing 2,000 BTC yesterday, capping downside as holders self-custody amid neutral sentiment at 48.^[1]^[2] Hashrate stalls around 1000 EH/s while miners capitulate on low hashprice, thinning network security even as Lightning capacity tops 2,900 BTC with expanding channels.^[3] Iran-Trump talks deadlock over Hormuz control sustains Brent above $100, importing inflation that forces tighter policy and erodes risk assets like Bitcoin without drawing capital flight inflows.^[4] Traders ignore how stagnant volume and absent leverage expose Bitcoin to oil-shock recessions, where HODLing fails against forced liquidations. Miner exodus accelerates if price dips below $78,000 cost basis. Will Hormuz reopen before yields spike past 4.5 percent and crush the range?^[5]

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The Wire

BITCOIN
Bitcoin rallies 2.3% after Trump calls Iran peace proposal ‘totally unacceptable’ — Cointelegraph

BITCOIN
Bitcoin holds $80K into weekly close as traders say BTC price dip not yet over — Cointelegraph

ECONOMY
Powell’s legacy as Fed chair is fighting inflation and Trump. He may lose the battle against both. — MarketWatch

CONFLICT
Oil jumps over 4% as Netanyahu and Trump remarks stoke worries of prolonged Middle East conflict — CNBC

CONFLICT
Modi says Iran war poses severe risks to India, urges cuts in fuel use and gold purchases — CNBC

ECONOMY
Stock futures slide as investors monitor the latest Iran war negotiations: Live updates — CNBC

Sources (23)

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