UK energy bills surge lifts inflation forecast to 2.9%

Lead story · economy — New UK cost of living crisis looms with soaring energy bills forecast to lift inflation (Guardian Biz)

The Lead

UK energy bills jumped again last month on higher wholesale gas costs, with the price cap set to push headline inflation toward 2.9 percent. That feeds directly into Bank of England rate expectations and keeps global dollar liquidity tighter than markets have priced. Bitcoin sits unchanged near 63,000 dollars with exchange inflows adding fresh supply and MVRV at 1.20 showing no strong holder conviction either way. The Middle East energy disruption has raised Brent above 88 dollars without yet producing capital flight into non-sovereign assets. Consensus treats higher UK inflation as contained and reversible, yet it collides with already elevated US yields near 4.70 percent and ample reserves that show no urgency to ease. How long can the Fed and BoE both stay patient while energy costs compound into broader price pressure?

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How this call played outPARTIAL

The realized 0.7% gain was directionally consistent with the past briefing’s neutral-to-mild-bullish stance, yet the move was tiny and Fear & Greed actually deteriorated, showing the narrative’s inflation headwinds were not immediately resolved. Exchange outflows remained modest and MVRV barely budged, confirming that the macro pressure cited did not yet translate into any meaningful risk-asset bid or liquidation. Treasury steepening and the unchanged energy backdrop continue to hang over the market, so the thesis remains plausible but untested.

Lesson: Small price changes with deteriorating sentiment metrics are not confirmation—treat macro headwinds as unresolved until both price and sentiment move decisively in the thesis’s favor.

The Wire

BITCOIN
Swiss mega-bank UBS ramps up its Bitcoin exposure with a massive 24-fold surge in ETF call options — CoinDesk

BITCOIN
Bitcoin to $1M by 2030 is ‘mathematically impossible’ says Markus Thielen — Cointelegraph

CONFLICT
Iran war live: Talks on Hormuz Strait continue; Israel kills 11 in Lebanon — Al Jazeera

ECONOMY
New UK cost of living crisis looms with soaring energy bills forecast to lift inflation — Guardian Biz

ECONOMY
"Won't Be Short-Lived": JPMorgan Warns Next Global Food Crisis Could Erupt Next Year — ZeroHedge

CONFLICT
Russian strikes kill Ukrainian woman as NATO jet downs drone over Romania — Al Jazeera

Sources (38)

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