Copper premium prices 15% tariff odds as Hormuz stays shut day 166.

Bitcoin sits in quiet distribution near 63300 as exchange inflows continue and MVRV at 1.20 leaves holders with thin unrealized gains. The copper COMEX-LME premium now prices in roughly a 15 percent chance of January 2027 tariffs and 37 percent for 30 percent duties starting 2028, tightening global industrial costs without any visible bid for scarce digital assets. Stable dollar liquidity and elevated long-end yields keep risk assets on a short leash while Hormuz disruption props up energy prices yet produces no measurable rotation into Bitcoin. The open question is whether sustained tariff-driven cost pressure eventually forces monetary accommodation or simply locks capital into real assets and Treasuries instead.