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Tuesday, 4 August 2026

2013 wallet moves $31M as Coldcard drains top $100M.

Lead story · bitcoinA bitcoin wallet dormant since 2013 moved $31 million, and it's not the only one (CoinDesk)

Threat: MONITORINGConviction: 67/10050 sources
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How this call played outMISSED

The past briefing foresaw downward pressure from supply shocks and muted macro support, yet BTC rose 0.8% the next day with only modest exchange outflows and a slight easing in Fear & Greed. Key developments that altered the picture were the RBI's decision to hold rates and advancing Hormuz talks, which shifted focus from on-chain supply concerns to liquidity and geopolitical risk dynamics. Because the market moved counter to the implied bearish tilt, the directional read was inaccurate.

Lesson: On-chain supply signals can be overridden quickly when macro or geopolitical developments reprice liquidity expectations.

BTC Price$63,766
24h Change1.60%
Fear & Greed25
Hashrate934.7 EH/s
MVRV1.20
Block Height960,971
S&P 5007,600.5
VIX15.86
Gold$4115
DXY99.89
US 10Y4.68%
Oil$81.10

The Lead

Bitcoin trades near $63,400 amid net inflows to exchanges that expand sell-side supply while MVRV at 1.20 leaves little cushion above average cost basis. Dormant wallets from 2013 activating and Coldcard exploits draining over $100 million together point to supply hitting the market from both old holders and compromised custody rather than fresh demand stepping in. Geopolitical oil pressure has eased without pulling capital into Bitcoin, and macro yields plus the dollar show no acute stress that would normally force rotation. The market appears to treat these on-chain events as noise rather than a distribution signal, yet sustained inflows would confirm the opposite. How much of the current exchange balance reflects genuine selling pressure versus temporary parking ahead of moves?

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The Wire

BITCOIN
A bitcoin wallet dormant since 2013 moved $31 million, and it's not the only oneCoinDesk

BITCOIN
Coldcard Bitcoin theft tops $100M across 3 confirmed attack waves: GalaxyCointelegraph

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Sources (50)