Friday, 31 July 2026
US strikes on Iran raise Hormuz energy risks as Fed split persists.
The blockade materialized and inflows continued, yet Bitcoin's threat level dropped to QUIET and conviction barely moved; this suggests the expected liquidity squeeze either proved milder than feared or was already priced in.
Lesson: Monitor whether macro risk events translate into measurable capital-cost shocks rather than headline-driven sentiment alone.
The Lead
US strikes on Iranian IRGC targets have escalated energy disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting Brent and tightening global liquidity without any automatic lift for Bitcoin. Exchange inflows continue amid MVRV near 1.23 and extreme fear readings, showing selective distribution rather than broad accumulation while network metrics hold steady without distress signals. The open question is whether Fed policy divergence resolves into tighter conditions or stalls, leaving risk assets exposed to sustained higher capital costs.
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BITCOIN
Major bitcoin wallet flaw drains 594 BTC in 25-minute sweep — CoinDesk
BITCOIN
Coldcard issues Mk3 warning as experts examine $38M Bitcoin wallet drain — Cointelegraph
POLITICAL
Treasury Secretary Invokes Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto in Plea for Clarity Act — Decrypt
ECONOMY
Bank holds interest rates but says it is ready to raise them if Iran war escalates — BBC Business
CONFLICT
Trump announces a deal for Hamas to disarm, but many hurdles and uncertainty remain — NPR World
CONFLICT
Iran holds funeral for Revolutionary Guard members reportedly killed in US — Al Jazeera