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← ArchiveDaily BriefingGenerated 06:00 UTC

Friday, 31 July 2026 · No. 120

US strikes on Iran raise Hormuz energy risks as Fed split persists.

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The Lead

US strikes on Iranian IRGC targets have escalated energy disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting Brent and tightening global liquidity without any automatic lift for Bitcoin. Exchange inflows continue amid MVRV near 1.23 and extreme fear readings, showing selective distribution rather than broad accumulation while network metrics hold steady without distress signals. The open question is whether Fed policy divergence resolves into tighter conditions or stalls, leaving risk assets exposed to sustained higher capital costs.

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