Warsh testimony and Hormuz blockades tighten energy and policy paths together.

Bitcoin's security margin is eroding as hashrate contracts and the next difficulty adjustment is set to cut rewards another 15 percent. Miners are idling marginal rigs while energy prices climb from the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb blockades. That same energy shock is pushing the dollar higher and yields firmer even as Fed officials signal they may need to hike again in a week. The market is pricing both tighter policy and tighter physical supply at once, yet Bitcoin shows no bid for that tension. The unresolved question is whether the outflows into self-custody reflect conviction or simply the absence of better alternatives until the next data print forces a choice.