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← ArchiveDaily BriefingGenerated 06:00 UTC

Thursday, 16 July 2026 · No. 105

Hormuz closure steepens yields as Bitcoin volume stays flat

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The Lead

The Hormuz closure has already pushed Brent above eighty dollars and steepened the Treasury curve, yet Bitcoin sits flat with only modest exchange outflows and holders still showing small unrealized gains on an MVRV near 1.22. Miners face another difficulty drop inside ten days while the market treats the energy shock as contained rather than a sustained cost shock that could force further hashrate exits or accelerate capitulation if inflows reverse. The open question is whether repeated geopolitical oil spikes will keep lifting gold and term premiums without ever translating into measurable Bitcoin accumulation once the initial flight-to-safety bid fades.

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