Sunday, 12 July 2026 · No. 101
US-Iran strikes escalate while Bitcoin hashrate and difficulty face further cuts.
The Lead
Bitcoin trades at 63940 dollars with fear dominant and MVRV at 1.21, leaving holders with thin margins above cost basis amid modest volume and contained liquidations. The most important development is renewed US military action in the Strait of Hormuz, which tightens oil supply risks and supports a stronger dollar that historically correlates with pressure on risk assets. Most overlook the mismatch between geopolitical escalation and network stagnation, where hashrate sits below peaks, the next difficulty cut looms near 12 percent, and Lightning capacity has contracted without rebound. This combination raises the chance that any sustained move below 64000 accelerates selling from the current narrow profitability zone rather than attracting fresh capital.
The full briefing
The full briefing is free with an account
Four more sections every morning: market conditions, network health, geopolitical watch and the macro pulse.
Registration takes an email or a Nostr key, and either way 7 days of VIP come with it.
The Reading
Threat
MONITORING
Conviction
66/100
45 sources cited
At Publication
Now and change since Sun 12 Jul
- BTC Price
- $63,940
- 24h Change
- -0.29%
- Fear & Greed
- 26
- Hashrate
- 871.9 EH/s
- MVRV
- 1.21
- Block Height
- 957,663
- S&P 500
- 7,575.39
- VIX
- 15.03
- Gold
- $4114
- DXY
- 100.97
- US 10Y
- 4.57%
- Oil
- $71.41
In This Briefing
The Wire
BITCOIN
Bitcoin’s BIP 110 fork deadline nears with miner support at zero — CoinDesk
BITCOIN
Bitcoin bulls Michael Saylor, Adam Back slam BIP-110 Ordinals proposal — Cointelegraph
CONFLICT
U.S. launches airstrikes against Iran after Tehran attacks container ship in Hormuz, Pentagon says — CNBC
CONFLICT
US forces launch new strikes on Iran; Tehran closes Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera
POLITICAL
The Real Grid Crisis Is A State Policy Problem Dressed Up As A Market Failure — ZeroHedge
DISASTER
Two dead and four injured in shooting at Toronto street festival — Sky News
Sources (45)
The Situation Room is paid for by its members, in sats: no ads, no data sales, no investors. Membership →