Energy relief meets steady Fed restraint with Bitcoin in consolidation.

Bitcoin trades near 63600 dollars inside a range that has absorbed modest inflows without breaking higher, even as exchange balances hold steady near 2.65 million coins. The US-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz removes the dominant energy shock that had supported broader risk premia, freeing central banks and reducing any immediate flight-to-safety bid that might otherwise lift Bitcoin. Most observers treat the current outflows and extreme fear reading as a setup for rebound, yet they overlook that miner hashrate remains resilient while Lightning capacity shows no acceleration in usage or commitment, leaving network demand flat amid contained macro liquidity. The real tension sits in whether Fed restraint under Warsh without forward guidance keeps dollar strength intact or simply delays the next data shock that forces a policy response.