Elevated real yields and firm dollar persist amid easing geopolitical energy risks.

Bitcoin trades at a modest premium to realized value while exchange balances remain elevated and net outflows have slowed, leaving price action dependent on whether fresh buying emerges before inflows resume. The ignored contradiction is that geopolitical energy shocks are sustaining higher real yields and a firm dollar even as equity volatility stays low and central banks signal tighter-for-longer policy, conditions that have compressed risk-asset multiples without yet forcing liquidation in crypto. The hard question is whether sustained outflows from risk assets will accelerate if energy prices reaccelerate or whether the current liquidity buffer absorbs the pressure without transmission to Bitcoin.