Fed hawkish tilt meets steady energy premiums and muted Bitcoin flows.

Bitcoin trades in quiet accumulation with modest price drift and sustained exchange outflows, yet extreme fear and an MVRV ratio near 1.41 show valuations remain compressed without fresh conviction to drive reversal. The ignored contradiction sits in the macro backdrop: Fed rhetoric now openly contemplates hikes on broadening inflation while markets still price net easing, and energy premiums from the Hormuz standoff keep real yields elevated without triggering visible risk-asset stress. That gap leaves liquidity stable only until the next inflation print validates or refutes the hawkish shift, exposing whether Bitcoin can attract flows when sovereign yields stay attractive and capital controls stay absent.