Hormuz deadlock sustains inflation and defers rate cuts into late 2026

Failed US-Iran talks have entrenched energy inflation and pushed rate cuts into late 2026. This development hardens monetary conditions and strips Bitcoin of expected liquidity support. Large holders accumulate via ongoing exchange outflows yet the network shows clear strain through declining hashrate and shrinking Lightning capacity. These signals expose miner pressure and weak demand that current price stability obscures. Fear at 33 on sentiment gauges reflects limited participation despite reasonable unrealized profits. Investors ignore how this accumulation clashes with a bear steepener in yields and gold at record levels that divert capital to traditional stores of value. The uncomfortable tension leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to any intensification of these forces. How long can self-custody demand withstand prohibitive macro conditions without policy relief or diplomatic progress?