Stagflation drives Bitcoin distribution and miner capitulation risks

The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has embedded a lasting oil shock that central banks must treat as structural, narrowing their options to tighter policy and slower growth rather than accommodation. This dominates Bitcoin's outlook, with the asset trading as collateral in the risk-off move: holders distribute to exchanges even in extreme fear, preventing accumulation and leaving price action listless in thin liquidity. The contradiction most overlook is miner capitulation, marked by the first quarterly hashrate decline in six years and rising pool concentration evident in a recent rare reorg, which threatens to erode decentralized security at the worst possible time. Lightning development continues but cannot offset base layer economic stress. The hard question is whether a deeper drawdown is needed to exhaust selling and reset incentives, or whether sustained pressure will instead lock in centralization that permanently alters the network's trustworthiness.